Serving the High Plains
Serving the High Plains
If you ask me, the election of 2026 is shaping up to look like 2010, at least at the top of New Mexico’s ticket.
In 2010, then-Gov. Bill Richardson was being term limited out after two terms in office. His Democratic Party nominated his lieutenant governor, Diane Denish, who became saddled with Richardson’s growing unpopularity at the time. She lost the election to Republican Susana Martinez, who went on to defeat Denish in the general election with 53% of the vote.
Look ahead to 2026 and a similar scenario may be shaping up. Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham will herself be term limited as her own lieutenant governor, Howie Morales, waits in the wings. He hasn’t declared his candidacy yet, but I’d bet my bottom dollar he will.
Meanwhile, the Republicans have just selected a new chair to replace the retiring Steve Pearce, who has been leading the party since 2018. Amy Barela, an Otero County commissioner, is replacing him, vowing to build unity within her party and go into areas of the state where the GOP is weakest. That would include north-central New Mexico, where the Democratic Party is strongest, but a little vulnerable nevertheless.
Clearly, the Republican Party is strong in Barela’s home country, southern New Mexico, where Donald Trump has always been strongest. But time and again, his conservative base hasn’t been enough to beat the Democrats up and down the Rio Grande Corridor, where the state’s most populated cities and most progressive voters are located. That could change, however, in the next race for governor.
Of course, a Republican running for statewide office doesn’t have to capture the majority vote in Las Cruces, Albuquerque and Santa Fe to win election; they just need to take enough of the urban vote away from the Democrats to allow the rural vote to be the deciding demographic.
This last election showed the party of Trump put a dent in the Democratic base — you can see it in the last three presidential elections. This year, Trump lost New Mexico with 45.9% of the vote; in 2020, he received 43.5% of New Mexico’s vote, and in 2016, he got 40.4%. A 5.5% gain in the Trump vote over eight years suggests a growing dissatisfaction with the status quo among New Mexico’s voters.
That dissatisfaction will likely hurt the Dems in 2026 — especially in the governor’s race. History will likely repeat itself with low public approval ratings for the outgoing governor — Lujan Grisham has already lost much of her luster; this upcoming legislative session will tell us how much luster she’s lost — leaving her successor carrying the baggage, as Denish did in 2010.
However, if the Democrats nominate Morales, they’ll get a candidate in a better position to win. He’s from southern New Mexico, just outside the Rio Grande Corridor in Silver City, whereas Denish resided in Albuquerque. Plus, I suspect Morales will be a better campaigner, with a back story that’s all New Mexican, as opposed to an “elite” feel that Denish carried way back when.
As for the Republicans’ nominee, I’d say a moderate conservative would be more palpable to the average New Mexican voter, but that might be hard to find in their new all-in-for-Trump party. We’ll see, in 2026.
Tom McDonald is editor of the New Mexico Community News Exchange. Contact him at: